Between June 15 and June 23, 2025, a flurry of tariff adjustments across six major trading economies sent fresh signals about revenue needs, strategic industries and retaliation dynamics. Below is a country-by-country deep dive complete with product codes, rate changes, policy rationales and early industry feedback.
India
A. Synthetic Rubber (HS 4002)
- Effective: June 16, 2025
- Old Rate: 7.5 %
- New Rate: 10 %
- Rationale: Shield domestic tire & tube makers from a surge in Chinese imports; part of “Atmanirbhar Bharat” push.
- Impact & Reaction: India’s four largest tire plants report order-book increases of 8–10 %; importers are scrambling to source higher-margin materials domestically. Rubber Goods Manufacturers Association warns of higher car‐service costs by year-end unless local capacity scales up.
B. E-Cigarette Vaporizer Devices (HS 8543)
- Effective: June 18, 2025
- Old Rate: 0 %
- New Rate: 12.5 %
- Rationale: Public-health measure, follows 2024 ban on flavored e-liquids; seeks to disincentivize vaping.
- Impact & Reaction: Local vape‐juice producers eye 15 % volume uptick; nicotine‐pouch startups view this as an opening. Public-health NGOs applaud but want companion tax on imports of disposable pods.
European Union
A. Solar Glass (CN 7007)
- Effective: June 20, 2025
- Old Rate: 7.5 % (provisional antidumping)
- New Rate: 10 % (definitive antidumping)
- Investigating Authority: DG Trade (Case AD 678)
- Rationale: Protect nascent European solar-module glass capacity from heavily subsidized Chinese producers.
- Impact & Reaction: German and Czech glass-fab consortiums project 250 MW extra domestic PV-glass capacity by 2026. Chinese exporters vow WTO challenge; EU solar commissions may re-assess state aid caps.
B. EV Battery Parts (HS 8507)
- Effective: June 22, 2025
- Old Rate: 4 %
- New Rate: 7 %
- Scope: Cathode/anode foils, separators, BMS modules from non-FTA partners.
- Rationale: Nurture downstream cell manufacturing in Poland, Hungary, France.
- Impact & Reaction: SK Innovation and LG Energy plan €400 million joint-ventured pouch-cell plant in Hungary to sidestep tariffs. European Battery Alliance praises the measure but calls for simultaneous R&D grants.
Brazil
A. Stainless-Steel Pipe Fittings (HS 7307)
- Effective: June 17, 2025
- Old Rate: 14 %
- New Rate: 20 %
- Rationale: Shield Petrobras’ upstream pipeline contractors; cultivate local metal-fabrication jobs.
- Impact & Reaction: Domestic pipe makers report 12 % increase in bids for Petrobras tenders. Engineering chambers warn of modest price bumps for state-run LNG projects.
B. Agricultural Drones (HS 8479)
- Effective: June 23, 2025
- Old Rate: 0 %
- New Rate: 5 %
- Rationale: Revenue-raising to fund rural-tech extension services and drone-pilot training.
- Impact & Reaction: Startup DroneAg Brasil recalibrated 2025 revenue forecast down by 3 %. Ministry of Agriculture pledges matching-grant subsidies for fleets purchased before September.
Mexico
Frozen Pork Offal (HS 0206)
- Effective: June 19, 2025
- Old Rate: 15 %
- New Rate: 25 %
- Rationale: Tit-for-tat against EU poultry safeguards; pressure EU into bilateral safeguard talks.
- Impact & Reaction: Mexican feedlots shift towards local hog production; limit on EU imports estimated at USD 90 million/year. EU ag-trade lobby decries the move as disruptive to EU-Mercosur corridor talks.
Australia
Non-Refillable Aluminum Beverage Cans (HS 7612)
- Effective: June 21, 2025
- Old Rate: 5 %
- New Rate: 12 %
- Rationale: Encourage reusable packaging under National Waste Policy; dovetail with AUD 100 million Container Deposit Scheme.
- Impact & Reaction: Major breweries announce C-Suite task force to accelerate return-to-retail programs. Environmental NGOs praise “polluter pays” logic but ask for further levy on single-use plastics.
South Korea
Plastics-to-Fuel Conversion Units (HS 8421)
- Effective: June 15, 2025
- New Surcharge: 15 % safeguard (temporary, 9 months)
- Rationale: Protect fledgling domestic pyrolysis-reactor builders from a sharp inflow of Chinese machines.
- Impact & Reaction: At least three Korean green-tech startups secure KRW 30 billion in new orders from municipal waste authorities. Importers lobby for carve-outs on pilot-scale units under 1 ton/day capacity.
Cross-Cutting Themes & Emerging Trends
- Tech & Climate Frontiers Renewables (solar glass), e-mobility (battery parts) and circular-economy gear (pyrolysis units) are prime targets. Governments are blending industrial policy with environmental objectives.
- Green-Fiscal Instruments Australia’s can-duty and Brazil’s drone-levy demonstrate a pivot toward environmental taxes rather than blunt revenue tools.
- Retaliation & Trade Diplomacy Mexico–EU and India–China dynamics underscore an uptick in sector-specific tit-for-tats. Watch for WTO disputes and bilateral safeguard negotiations.
What’s Next on the Radar
- G7 Summit (Hiroshima, Late June): Possible coordination on carbon-adjustment duties to prevent “leakage” of heavy industry.
- Canada’s Mid-July Tariff Update: Expect consultations on digital-services levies and agricultural machinery duties.
- China’s July 2025 Schedule: Early signs point to duties on imported self-driving vehicle components.
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